Atlantic Hurricane EARL Advisory Number 37

Atlantic Hurricane EARL Advisory Number 37
Fri, 03 Sep 2010 09:59:02 -0500

000
WTNT32 KNHC 031458
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

...A LARGE BUT WEAKER HURRICANE EARL HEADING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 73.1W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND
REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF OCRACOKE.

THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FOR MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN REDUCED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE COAST OF
CONNECTICUT WEST OF NEW HAVEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

ALL WATCHES/WARNINGS BETWEEN HULL MASSACHUSETTS AND CAPE ELIZABETH
MAINE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

NUMEROUS CHANGES TO CANADIAN WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM WESTWARD TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE NORTH CAROLINA TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING
DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH
OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS
* STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD
TO ECUM SECUM
* TIDNISH TO LISMORE
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE ELIZABETH TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO LISMORE
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS
TODAY...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED
REMAIN A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
961 MB...28.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD AND REACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY...AND SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER
MASSACHUSETTS. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF
RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 5 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA...MARYLAND AND DELAWARE AND ALSO ACROSS CENTRAL AND
COASTAL MAINE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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