Compact News: Atlantic Hurricane KARL Advisory Number 13

Friday, September 17, 2010

Atlantic Hurricane KARL Advisory Number 13

Atlantic Hurricane KARL Advisory Number 13
Fri, 17 Sep 2010 09:46:24 -0500

000
WTNT33 KNHC 171446
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

...CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE KARL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 95.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
MEXICAN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THEN MOVE INLAND
OVER MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE
LANDFALL...WITH KARL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT LAGUNA VERDE MEXICO
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 55 MPH...89 KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...AT THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND NEAR THE
CENTER OF KARL AFTER LANDFALL.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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