Compact News: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches Update

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches Update

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 666
Wed, 15 Sep 2010 19:00:03 -0500

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 666 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 555 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 555 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ENID OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 664...WW 665... DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS NW OK. A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS WITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS ARE PROBABLE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS GIVEN THE STRONG ASCENT ON THE BOUNDARY...AND A STORM ENVIRONMENT WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT AND MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. OTHER SEVERE STORMS NEAR ICT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE OK BORDER...POTENTIALLY REACHING THE OSAGE COUNTY AREA AROUND 01Z. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREATS UNTIL LATE EVENING WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE CAP STRENGTHENS. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30020. ...THOMPSON

SPC Tornado Watch 665
Wed, 15 Sep 2010 19:00:07 -0500

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 665 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 320 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WICHITA KANSAS TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF WICHITA KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 664... DISCUSSION...POTENTIALLY VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT AND DRYLINE INTERSECTION WEST OF ICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRONG HEATING AND CONTINUING LIFT NEAR SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARIES TO CONTRIBUTE TO ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY FEEDING THIS CONVECTION /MLCAPE AOA 3000 J PER KG/...SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS APPEAR LIKELY. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ROTATION WHILE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT ACTS TO ENHANCE SR INFLOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PERSISTENT AND STRONG MESOCYCLONES. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST FOR DISCRETE STORMS TRACKING PREFERENTIALLY ALONG THE TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT SITUATED ACROSS SCNTRL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025. ...CARBIN

SPC Tornado Watch 664
Wed, 15 Sep 2010 19:00:10 -0500

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 664 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 220 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL 800 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF MITCHELL SOUTH DAKOTA TO 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MANKATO MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED ACROSS SERN SD WITH A OUTFLOW REINFORCED WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO ALONG IA/MN BORDER AREA. STRONG DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS DEVELOPING CONVECTION TAPS GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH LOW DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE FORCING...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO INCREASE. INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEEP ROTATION AND HAIL PRODUCTION...WHILE ACTIVITY NEAR THE DEEPENING LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FAVORED FOR STRONGER LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND TORNADIC POTENTIAL. WITH TIME...WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES AMIDST STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025. ...CARBIN

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 666 Status Reports
Wed, 15 Sep 2010 19:00:05 -0500

  STATUS FOR WATCH 0666 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

SPC Tornado Watch 665 Status Reports
Wed, 15 Sep 2010 19:00:09 -0500

  STATUS REPORT ON WW 665  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE AVK TO 25 N HUT.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1841  ..GARNER..09/15/10  ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...   STATUS REPORT FOR WT 665   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS   KSC001-003-015-017-019-031-035-049-073-077-079-095-099-111-113- 115-125-133-155-159-173-191-205-207-160040-  KS  .    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  ALLEN                ANDERSON            BUTLER               CHASE                CHAUTAUQUA          COFFEY               COWLEY               ELK                 GREENWOOD            HARPER               HARVEY              KINGMAN              LABETTE              LYON                MCPHERSON            MARION               MONTGOMERY          NEOSHO               RENO                 RICE                SEDGWICK             SUMNER               WILSON              WOODSON                THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

SPC Tornado Watch 664 Status Reports
Wed, 15 Sep 2010 19:00:13 -0500

  STATUS REPORT ON WW 664  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW SLB TO 30 SSW RWF TO 45 SSW STC.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1840.  ..PETERS..09/15/10  ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...MPX...ABR...   STATUS REPORT FOR WT 664   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS   IAC021-033-035-041-059-063-081-091-093-109-147-151-189-193-195- 160040-  IA  .    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  BUENA VISTA          CERRO GORDO         CHEROKEE             CLAY                 DICKINSON           EMMET                HANCOCK              HUMBOLDT            IDA                  KOSSUTH              PALO ALTO           POCAHONTAS           WINNEBAGO            WOODBURY            WORTH                  MNC013-015-033-043-047-063-079-085-091-103-131-143-147-161-165- 160040-  MN  .    MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  BLUE EARTH           BROWN               COTTONWOOD           FARIBAULT            FREEBORN            JACKSON              LE SUEUR             MCLEOD              MARTIN               NICOLLET             RICE                SIBLEY

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