Compact News: Atlantic Hurricane PAULA Advisory Number 9

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Atlantic Hurricane PAULA Advisory Number 9

Atlantic Hurricane PAULA Advisory Number 9
Wed, 13 Oct 2010 09:45:50 -0500

000
WTNT33 KNHC 131445
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010

...PAULA EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD WESTERN CUBA SOON...EYE CLEARLY
SEEN ON CANCUN AND WESTERN CUBAN RADARS...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HAS REPLACED IT WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM CANCUN TO CABO CATOCHE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF YUCATAN FROM CANCUN TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...-
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...BUT THE HURRICANE
SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST LATER TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA
BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT.

PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD STILL AFFECT A SMALL PORTION
OF NORTHEAST YUCATAN WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN
CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
FLORIDA KEYS LATE THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

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