Compact News: Atlantic Tropical Storm PAULA Advisory Number 2

Monday, October 11, 2010

Atlantic Tropical Storm PAULA Advisory Number 2

Atlantic Tropical Storm PAULA Advisory Number 2
Mon, 11 Oct 2010 21:44:19 -0500

000
WTNT33 KNHC 120244
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

...PAULA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
SOON...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 84.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ENE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING
NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN
MEXICO WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
PAULA WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT AND
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER...EASTERN HONDURAS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...AND NORTHERN BELIZE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN HONDURAS...
WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

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