Compact News: Atlantic Tropical Storm PAULA Advisory Number 13

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Atlantic Tropical Storm PAULA Advisory Number 13

Atlantic Tropical Storm PAULA Advisory Number 13
Thu, 14 Oct 2010 09:36:19 -0500

000
WTNT33 KNHC 141436
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

...PAULA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM HUGS THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 84.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...BUT A TURN
TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...PAULA WILL
CONTINUE TO HUG THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA OR MOVE INLAND OVER
CUBA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA TODAY PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTH COAST OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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