Compact News: Atlantic Hurricane PAULA Advisory Number 10

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Atlantic Hurricane PAULA Advisory Number 10

Atlantic Hurricane PAULA Advisory Number 10
Wed, 13 Oct 2010 15:41:54 -0500

000
WTNT33 KNHC 132041
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
400 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010

...PAULA BEGINS TO WEAKEN...WEATHER DETERIORATING OVER WESTERN
CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 85.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CUIDAD DE LA HABANA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD STILL AFFECT A SMALL PORTION
OF NORTHEAST YUCATAN WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CUIDAD DE LA HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...-
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THIS TRACK...PAULA
WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA LATER TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY
EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

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