Compact News: Atlantic Hurricane PAULA Advisory Number 7

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Atlantic Hurricane PAULA Advisory Number 7

Atlantic Hurricane PAULA Advisory Number 7
Tue, 12 Oct 2010 21:39:49 -0500

000
WTNT33 KNHC 130239
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...SMALL HURRICANE PAULA CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...MOVING TOWARD
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 86.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE
OF PAULA SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY AND BE NEAR
OR OVER WESTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
THEREAFTER.

PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

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